College football picks, schedule: Predictions against the spread, odds for top 25 games in Week 11

Three weeks remain in college football’s 2022 regular season, which means divisional races are heating up, conference championship pictures are clarifying and teams legitimately eligible for the College Football Playoff are dwindling with every Saturday that passes. Such will be the case again in Week 11 with multiple top-25 showdowns set to clarify these scenarios.

The most notable showdowns come from the SEC where No. 7 LSU hopes to avoid taking a step back from its thrilling overtime win against Alabama when it visits Arkansas. Despite the Tigers suddenly becoming the talk of the nation in Year 1 under coach Brian Kelly, their grip on the SEC West is tenuous. LSU will need to win out to secure a spot in the SEC Championship Game (likely against No. 1 Georgia), and that begins by avoiding a road upset against an Arkansas team that can play up to anyone.

Speaking of the No. 9 Crimson Tide, barring an absolute miracle, their SEC and CFP hopes are dashed. That is not the case for No. 11 Ole Miss, which hosts Alabama in the SEC on CBS Game of the Week with Rebels coach Lane Kiffin looking to get his first win over Nick Saban. Unlike the Tide, the Rebels still have a shot to win the SEC West. Ole Miss will have to beat Alabama to put itself in position, though it will also need LSU to take an L as the regular season concludes.

Saturday’s nightcap is a huge Big 12 showdown as newly minted No. 4 TCU visits No. 18 Texas in perhaps its toughest remaining test over the final three weeks. The Longhorns have been playing much better in the second half of the season, and with former Horned Frogs coach Gary Patterson on staff as an analyst, they will certainly have a handle on what TCU brings to the table. If the Frogs can get past the ‘Horns, only Baylor and Iowa State remain as TCU eyes a spot in the playoff.

Be sure to stick with CBS Sports throughout the day for college football coverage from the opening kickoff onward. Let’s take a look at our expert picks for the best games in Week 11.

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook | All times Eastern

Missouri at No. 5 Tennessee

Noon | CBS, CBSSports.com, CBS Sports App — Aside from a confounding 40-12 loss at Kansas State in Week 2, Missouri has been excellent defensively. Even in that game, the Tigers allowed just 336 total yards as they were hampered by a 4-to-1 deficit in turnover margin. The last seven games Missouri has played have finished within the confines of this spread, and the Tigers should be able to keep things respectable again here. Missouri is tied for 100th nationally in turnover margin, but that has to flip at some point. If the Tigers keep their turnover woes under control, they’ll keep the game close. Prediction: Missouri +21 — David Cobb

No. 7 LSU at Arkansas

Noon | ESPN, fuboTV (Try for free) —  A letdown spot on the road against a talented opponent is a natural trap game opportunity, but the status of K.J. Jefferson makes the upset chance more tenuous. LSU has played inspired football since its early losses to Tennessee and Florida State, and there’s little reason to expect a Brian Kelly coached team to not play good, fundamental football in a critical game with CFP hopes. Prediction: LSU -3 — Shehan Jeyarajah

No. 9 Alabama at No. 11 Ole Miss

3:30 p.m. | CBS, CBSSports.com, CBS Sports App — Take Ole Miss and the points, but you won’t need them because the Rebels are winning this one outright. The multi-dimensional Rebels rushing attack will have success early, draw Alabama defenders into the box, and Jaxson Dart will hit shots over the top. At the same time, the Ole Miss defense will have enough success getting pressure that it will put Alabama behind the sticks. That’s bad news for an Alabama team that has not been crisp on the road. Prediction: Ole Miss +12 — Barrett Sallee

No. 1 Georgia at Mississippi State

7 p.m. | ESPN, fuboTV (Try for free) — Mississippi State has failed to cover the spread in three straight games while Georgia seems to be hitting its peak here in the most important part of the season. Georgia’s defense has performed at an even higher level than Alabama’s, and the Crimson Tide were able to put on tape the way to shut this year’s Mississippi State offense down. I think the Athens-based Bulldogs will be able to do the same. Prediction: Georgia -16 — Chip Patterson

No. 4 TCU at No. 18 Texas

7:30 p.m. | ABC, fuboTV (Try for free) — The Longhorns rate well in most analytic systems thanks to a close game against Alabama and a blowout of a quarterback-less Oklahoma team. However, the Longhorns also have losses to Texas Tech and Oklahoma State, along with a close game against Iowa State. One of these teams knows how to finish games, and it’s the boys in purple. Prediction: TCU +7 — Jeyarajah

Which college football picks can you make with confidence in Week 11, and which top-25 teams will go down hard? Visit SportsLine to see which teams will win and cover the spread — all from a proven computer model that has returned almost $3,000 in profit over the past six-plus seasons — and find out.