Dow Jones futures fell slightly overnight, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures fell. Nike (NKE) fell on mixed earnings late. The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation headlines economic data on Friday.
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The stock market rally rebounded on Thursday, with indexes trading within the aggressive sell-off seen on Wednesday.
AAPL stock fell, settling just above a buy point. As expected. apple AAPL has suspended sales of some Apple Watch models due to a patent dispute. Carnival Company (CCL) cleared its early earnings buy point. Google Parents the alphabet (GOOGL) has regained its buy point. Microsoft (MSFT) is held in a buy zone. Novo Nordisk (NVO) is moving towards the buy point while… Super micro computer (SMCI) seems to be working on the handle.
Overall purchasing opportunities are limited. Overall, this is a good time to hold steady, and perhaps take some partial profits, while waiting for the market’s next move.
MSFT stock is on IBD’s leaderboard. CCL stock is on SwingTrader. Microsoft stock is on the IBD Long-Term Leaders list. Carnival, Super Micro and NVO are in the IBD 50. Carnival was also the IBD Stock of the Day on Thursday.
Dow jones futures today
Dow futures fell 0.2% versus fair value, with NKE stock falling modestly. S&P 500 futures fell, and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.2%.
Crude oil futures rose slightly.
PCE inflation readings and other economic data ahead of the open are sure to send Dow futures and Treasury yields swinging ahead of the open.
Remember, an overnight move in Dow Jones futures and elsewhere does not necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.
Nike profits
NKE stock fell sharply overnight as Nike’s earnings beat views while revenues fell flat. Clothing and footwear giant Dow Jones lowered its sales forecasts and announced a major cost-cutting plan. Nike stock rose 0.9% to 122.53 on Thursday, still building the right side of a long cup base. The stock has a buy point of 131.31.
Inflation PCE
The November PCE price index is scheduled to be released on Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists expect a decline of 0.1% compared to October, with annual gains falling to 2.9%. The core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, is expected to rise 0.2% during the month. Core PCE inflation is expected to fall to 3.4%.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index is part of the Commerce Department’s Income and Expenditure Report. Personal income is expected to rise by 0.4% with spending rising by 0.3%.
Trade will issue durable goods orders at the same time. Total orders are expected to rise by 2.4% after falling by 5.4% in October. Orders excluding transportation items are expected to rise 0.2% after a flat October. Core capital goods orders are expected to rise 0.1% after falling 0.3% in October.
At 10 a.m. EST, new home sales are expected to show a slight increase for November to an annual rate of 690,000 from 679,000 in October.
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Stock market pool
After Wednesday’s sharp bearish reversal, expectations were that the selling would continue. But this market does not want to decline, as it rebounded on Thursday and closed at session highs.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.9% in stock market trading Thursday. The S&P 500 rose 1%. The Nasdaq Composite Index jumped 1.3%. The small-cap Russell 2000 stock jumped 1.7%.
For all of these indicators, this was an inside day, trading comfortably within Wednesday’s range. So it’s hard to understand much of the meaning of Thursday’s movement. Perhaps the market will stall or decline modestly over several days or sessions. This would be ideal, allowing indices to catch their breath and allowing leading stocks to create new buying opportunities.
This is a natural place for indicators to pause. The S&P 500 is just below record highs. The Nasdaq is trading around the 15,000 level and is still somewhat extended from its 50-day line. The Russell 2000 is facing resistance just above the 2000 level.
US crude oil prices fell by 0.4% to $73.89 per barrel.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 3.89% after falling to 3.83%.
ETFs
Among growth ETFs, the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) rose 1.4%, with MSFT stock a key component. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) jumped 2.5%.
Reflecting more speculative stocks, the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) rebounded 2.55% and the ARK Genomics ETF (ARKG) rose 3%.
The SPDR S&P Metals and Mining ETF (XME) rose 2.3%. US Global Jets ETF (JETS) rose 2%. SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) rose 1.4%. The Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE) rose 0.4% and the Healthcare Select SPDR ETF (XLV) advanced 1.2%.
The Industrial Sector SPDR ETF (XLI) and the Financial Select SPDR ETF (XLF) both rebounded 1%.
Microsoft’s cybersecurity business is booming. Critics say that’s the problem.
Apple shares
Apple stock fell 0.1% to 194.68, holding above a cup-with-handle buy point at 192.93 with a high 21-day moving average just below that. As expected, Apple has stopped selling its Apple Watch Series 9 and Ultra 2 on its website in the United States. This follows orders from the International Trade Commission, which found that the Apple Watch models’ blood oxygen sensor infringed intellectual property rights Massimo (Massie). This means that Apple is not selling major consumer products in the final days of the holiday season.
Stocks near buy points
Carnival shares jumped 6.2% to 19.19 on Thursday. Shares have almost reached a buy point at 19.55 cups, according to a MarketSmith analysis. Investors can use the December 14 high of 19.23 as an early entry from an imperfect handle. Shares settled this entry intraday, although they closed just below that level. Early Thursday, Carnival reported a smaller-than-expected loss while reporting strong revenue and guidance.
Google stock rose 1.5% to 140.42, above a cup-with-handle buy point of 139.42. Stocks rose Wednesday morning on a report of a potential renewal of ad sales, but pared gains in Wednesday’s sell-off. The relative strength line has lagged over the past couple of months, but is starting to rise again.
Microsoft stock rose 0.8% to 373.54, continuing to embrace the 21-day moving average as the 50-day line closes the gap. Shares remain held in a range between 366.78 buy points on a cup basis, which were first settled on November 10. Investors may want to wait for MSFT stock to clear a short trend line, using Wednesday’s high of 376.03 as a limiting input.
Novo Nordisk shares rose 2.1% to 103.48. Shares are close to reclaiming a previous buy point of 104 from a flat base, although this is no longer technically valid. NVO stock could run on a new flat base, which would have an entry level of 105.69. Over the past two weeks, Novo Nordisk has strengthened its competition for the weight-loss drug Eli Lilly (LLY) stuck under 50 days.
Super Micro stock rose 0.7% to 304.18, pulling back from intraday highs. AI server trading appears to be working on the handle around key levels after a strong five-day rally. SMCI shares are tightening after some wild swings earlier in the consolidation process.
What are you doing now
The stock market rally is still going strong. But there are not many buying opportunities while the market’s very short-term direction is unclear after Wednesday’s reversal. It’s good to imagine possible scenarios, but in the end you have to take the market day by day.
Investors may want to make some profits, but much will depend on your current holdings and investment style. There are plenty of reasons to continue investing heavily.
Continue working on your watchlists to develop your settings. Leading stocks can quickly form upward handles or pullbacks if the market takes a break.
Read The Big Picture every day to stay on top of market trend and leading stocks and sectors.
Please follow Ed Carson on X/Twitter at @IBD_ECarsonthreads at @edcarson1971 and Bluesky at @edcarson.bsky.social for stock market updates and more.
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