Maturing Futures: Rally Faces Big Test; Focus on 4 Dow stocks

 Maturing Futures: Rally Faces Big Test;  Focus on 4 Dow stocks

Dow futures will open Sunday evening, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. The stock market rally maintained support levels last week. Now can the S&P 500 move above the 200 day moving average in the coming days and weeks? apple (AAPL) can be a key.


Apple stock held key levels and rose slightly even as the overall market fell. Like the S&P 500, the iPhone tech giant is returning toward its 200-day streak. A decisive move above this level could provide a buying opportunity. But another rejection could provide another opportunity to sell AAPL shares.

Meanwhile, fellow Dow Jones components Boeing (BA) , c. B. Morgan Chase (JPM) and GS stock have been quietly going up significant gains in the past several weeks, which has contributed to the Dow’s outperformance in the current market rally. BA stock is technically close to a traditional buy point. Goldman Sachs GS is forming a deep base while JPM stock still has to do.

Dow jones futures today

Dow Jones futures open at 6 p.m. ET on Sunday, along with futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.

Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere does not necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.

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Stock market rally analysis

Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose less than 0.1% in stock trading last week. The S&P 500 fell 0.7% and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.5%. Small-cap Russell 2000 shed 1.75%.

On Tuesday, November 15, the S&P 500 briefly crossed 4,000, approaching the 200-day moving average. This level is especially important because the benchmark index only once returned from the 200-day line on August 16, triggering another bear market move.

A decisive move above the 200-day line, which will also roughly coincide with the Retreating Peaks trendline from the Jan. 4 high, would be a strong indication that the uptrend is more of a bear market rally.

The S&P 500 crossing the 200-day line would also be a positive backdrop for the blue chips, which are struggling near buy points amid a volatile market.

Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 fell back below the 200-day line last week, but will likely regain that level ahead of the S&P 500. The Dow Jones, backed by Boeing, Goldman, and JPM, is comfortably above 200-days. . But surpassing last week’s high would take the Dow back to 34,000 and just below its peak in August.

The Nasdaq, affected by the strong growth, is 8.3% below the 200-day line. A move above last week’s highs would be a good first step. Also positive: the 21-day moving average rose above the 50-day line on Friday.

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Thanksgiving week is not necessarily a great time for a big market move. Markets will be closed on Thanksgiving with a half-day session on Friday. Volume is likely to be light throughout the week. The next week ends with a bang. On December 1, investors will get personal consumption expenditures inflation data for October, along with the manufacturing index for November from ISM. The November jobs report is due on December 2. This news could have a significant impact on expectations of a Fed rate hike, bond yields and stock prices.

So it wouldn’t be surprising to see the major indices range trading over the next week or so. There’s nothing wrong with a little consolidation of the major indices and blue-chip stocks.

Apple Stock

Apple stock rose 1.1% last week to 151.29, after last week’s 8.2% rise. Stocks held their 50-day moving average, with the 21-day line above the 50-day mark. AAPL stock is modestly below the 200-day line. Oil giant Dow Jones traded for 200 days on Oct. 28 after earnings. But that turned out to be a great selling opportunity, as within a few days shares fell to their worst close since mid-June.

A decisive move above the 200-day line, perhaps beyond the October 28 high of 157.50, would provide an early entry into a bottom base starting on August 17. But if Apple stock reverses lower from that area, it could provide a shorting opportunity.

Apple’s success or failure at the 200-day streak could be key to the S&P 500’s own bid, and vice versa.

Boeing stock

BA shares fell 2% to 173.89, after gaining 47% over five weeks. While aerospace giant Dow Jones slumped on Oct. 26 on earnings, shares rebounded again, especially on the back of bullish cash flow a few days later.

Technically, Boeing stock is just under 173.95 buy points for the base of the cup. But shares are 9.5% higher on the 200-day line and 19.5% on the 50-day line. Pausing around current levels could create a safer buying opportunity.

Boeing is expected to report a profit in 2023, ending four years of losses.

Goldman Stock

GS stock fell 1.55% to 379.20 last week. On the daily chart, the stocks extend from 358.72 points a key buy point within a much larger consolidation. On the weekly chart, Goldman stock has 389.68 points long from the base of a one-year cup handle, according to MarketSmith analysis. But after posting a 28% gain over four consecutive weeks of gains, this is a pretty small handle. A longer, deeper handle would be useful, and let the 50-day line close the gap.

The RSI line is at a four-year high, reflecting the outperformance of Goldman stock against the S&P 500. The RS line is the blue line in the available charts.

JPM Stock

JPMorgan stock fell 1.1% to 133.84 last week. This is after an advance of 29.5% over six weeks. The stock has crossed its 50-day and 200-day lines, but it still has work to do. JPM stock could build a long and deep consolidation on the right side, or it could form a bottoming base.

Read the big picture every day to stay in sync with market trend, leading stocks and sectors.

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