Article written by: TrendForce
TrendForce expects an annual growth rate of 2-5% for 2024, pushing shipments slightly above pre-pandemic levels.
The second quarter revealed laptop inventory channels showing good levels, according to TrendForce. Both North America and Asia Pacific regions are showing a healthy appetite for mid-range and low-end consumer models. This isn’t just a race to restock; It is a strategic move to prepare for the back-to-school wave expected in the third quarter.
And here’s the rub – while Google was preparing to roll out licensing fees, Chromebook shipments peaked. This increase pushed second-quarter laptop shipments to 42.52 million units, representing a 21.6% quarter-over-quarter jump. However, a look at the big picture reveals a total of 77.5 million units shipped in the first half of the year, down 23.5% year over year.
TrendForce also indicates that during the second half of 2023, growth momentum is based on the purchasing power of end consumers. However, with the economic outlook for the two major laptop markets – the US and Europe – shrouded in uncertainty, typical seasonal purchasing demand is weak. Moreover, some of this demand was already met in the second quarter. As a result, third-quarter laptop shipments are expected to see moderate growth of 3.8%, reaching 44.13 million units. Annual laptop shipments are expected to reach 163 million units, representing a 12.2% year-over-year decline.
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In preparation for 2024, the technological horizon looks promising. With market inventories in line with healthy metrics and expected inflationary pressures beginning to stabilize, global laptop shipments are poised for a potential rebound. However, it is not all roses. As the global consumer environment continues to feel pressure, even as demand gradually picks up, the market is not showing strong bullish signs yet.
TrendForce expects an annual growth rate of 2-5% for 2024, pushing shipments slightly above pre-pandemic levels. After inventory adjustments, the broader market is poised for a gentle rebound. However, all eyes remain on the twin giants of consumer markets – China and the US – to gauge whether we can actually expect a strong increase in shipments.
In the latter half of the year, the absence of seasonal market activity coupled with low demand not only affected companies’ profitability, but also presented challenges to next year’s budget. At the same time, the emergence of artificial intelligence and the emphasis on its underlying infrastructure may marginalize IT expenditures. While Windows 10 is scheduled to end support in October 2025, it is expected to spur a wave of business hardware upgrades starting in 2024. However, TrendForce believes that based on the demand for business laptops, the momentum and urgency of this upgrade wave may They are delayed and subdued, making large shipment growth less likely.
On the consumer demand front, when considering global economic forces, China faces challenges due to the weak economic and employment environment, casting a somewhat pessimistic outlook on the development of the market. In contrast, the United States saw a strong recovery in demand in 2023, but expectations point to moderate growth in 2024. Europe, after undergoing a two-year demand recalibration, may see a consumer recovery in the latter half, if the broader economic climate improves. . Finally, the Southeast Asia region, supported by a thriving consumer sector, expects an upward trend in shipments, indicating modest growth in consumer-focused devices.
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